by orion » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:12 pm
I think those flybys are all further down canyon, the South Fork Tuolomne probably. Right now they are just trying to save structures, this fire could potentially burn down Groveland.
The winds are going to be southerly or southwesterly for the next few days, which will likely bring this fire up to the Kibbie Ridge. The ridge burned about 10 years ago, and it starts to get pretty rocky up there. Cherry Creek Canyon is definately a firewall. I expect this one might run up Jack Main Canyon, The Tuolmne Canyon on the south side, White Wolf, maybe to May Lake, we'll see how the winds shift. They're not going to stop this fire, the winter will do that, and it's a long way off. I consider this the biggest disaster of my lifetime. That area is my home more than any other.
As for alternate plans, you might look into the east side, maybe up from Twin Lakes, or that trailhead near the Marine Alpine Training Center that goes up toards Tower Peak, anything West of there in the Emigrant Wilderness (Crabtree Trailhead, Kennedy Meadows trailhead) or Northern Yosemite is apt to be choked with smoke. There are some good hikes on the south side of Yosemite, to Breeze Lake, Chain Lakes, Ottoway Lakes, and Red Peak Pass heading out of a trailhead near Chiquito Lake, or you could hike up towards the Minarets and Banner Peak from the Mammoth area. I'm considering Trinity Alps or King's Canyon as well. I'm not sure how the fire will affect the crowds in the Valley and up in Tuolumne, could get worse for the lack of options, but the fire might hit Crane Flat before you know it and make Tuolomne Meadows empty if you can get there from the east side.
As far as how it started, I suspect lightning, but the cause is unknown. I was just saying last week to a friend that I hoped the lightning didn't burn the whole place down before I got a chance to head up there this weekend. Looks like the lightning burnt the whole place down. I'm sure I'm not the only one, but I feel devastated. This is an absolute tragedy.