What Are The Odds

[og Walker]

Greetings
I have a permit to enter at may Lake and exit at TM for a couple nights Setp 9th.
What are the odds that this trip actually happens, i have not seen much about the snow/weather conditions in that area.

Thanks
Oscar

[markskor]

Early September is usually the best weather in Tuolumne. Heck. the store and lodge will still be open...no wildflowers but no mosquitos either. I say go!

[Phil]

In Sept, there are only two things that would stop you from making that hike: you not doing it, or a fire closure. I also say, go.

[balzaccom]

It's the best time of year to go. School has started. Fewer people. Almost no skeeters. Streams are easy to cross. And while the days are shorter, the weather is frequently lovely. Just watch to make sure a major storm isn't on it's way. That would be rare. First BIG snowfalls usually don't occur until November...

[dan]

Extremely high odds, at least as far as weather.

[Grzldvt]

See my post. I just got back from the park and was shocked as to how little snow was left at this point. As others have said absolutely no issue at all.

[og Walker]

Ok, Its on!
The weather looks perfect and the oil in the car is changed.
My buddy backed out so its a solo trip, my first solo trip, but I'm sure everything will be fine.

I assume there is water in the stream between May Lake and Aulin, anybody been up there lately?

Oscar

[Phil]

I assume there is water in the stream between May Lake and Aulin, anybody been up there lately?

That depends on what creek you're talking about....

After May Lake, your next water is going to be Raisin Lake (that's a nice first-night alternative to May Lake itself, and there are some great sites to be found). That creek that you parallel in that valley might have some flow, but not likely now or necessary at that point. After that, there's a seep/spring on the switchback descent down to Murphy Creek just the other side of that quick little pass you go over. The valley will be dry from the Tuolumne Peak junction and below. If you need water there, the closest is going to be the trailside pond that's part of the Polly Dome complex, but you'll need to make a slight, short diversion down the Murphy Creek Trail itself for that. I doubt Murphy Creek will be running this late. Past that, next you have Cathedral Creek several miles further along that will almost undoubtedly have some flow to it. Load up a bit there if you need it because McGee Lake is probably pretty nasty about now. Any and all those sources are virtually guaranteed and will easily get you through to Glen Aulin plenty hydrated.

[og Walker]

Hey Phil, thank you for the great write up, I hope to know the back country that well some day.
I'm going to carry a gallon of water and my two bottles so i think I should be able to make it in good shape.
It should be a good trip for sure, thanks again!

Oscar

[Phil]

No problem on the info.

Why carry a gallon plus 2 liters? That's like 12 extra lbs of water weight. You'll have plenty of water with just your couple bottles and/or some kind of gravity filter system or hydration pack bladder for camp, even if you guzzle a lot, and there are no sections where that 2L alone isn't going to easily get you to the next source.

For you going solo for the first time, that's a great bite-sized route. You'll have no problems. Enjoy.

[AlmostThere]

I don't think I've ever carried a gallon of water anywhere in the Sierra. It's not a desert, there's water at regular intervals.

[og Walker]

Great time!
The nights dipped in to the mid 20's temperature wise but not a problem.
No rain or wind and not a skeeter to be found, really a good trip.

Like I said this was my first solo trip and maybe second trip all together so my water concerns were not an issue, I carried a bladder but never filled it.
I figure if that's the worst thing to happen then this was a successful trip.

Thanks again for the advice, guys!
Oscar