My group of 5 submitted two applications that were won in the lottery. One permit for August 29 & one for August 30. Before I dump the permit for August 30 back into the pool via cancellation, I was wondering what the rate of cancellation at Half Dome is due to weather. I have read where if wet, slippery or thundershowers it is not advisable to climb the peak/ladder, but not anything about cancellation/closure rate due to these conditions by 12 Noon. Should I waste the $40 and save the August 30 permit as a back-up for inclement weather or that would be foolish since the chance of cancellation is slim. I am planning on an arrival time of around noon, figuring about a 6 hour climb for the 7+ miles to the summit as our group shouldbe acclimated to hiking as this is half-way thru my hiking trip and would already have other 10-15 miles hikes under our boots. This I figure is early enought to beat late day thunderstorms. However, I hate the thought of wasting a day going about 80% of the way only to turn back and then have to go do it again the next day. Also how easy is it to get a permit at last minute (within two days) if the weather does cancel our August 29 permit? Would still be available to do climb 8/30, 8/31 & 9/1. I know nobody has a crystal ball on the weather, but a probability of historical cancellation rate would be knowledge to give me a more accurate plan to make an educated decision.
Thanks, Aaron