by Phil » Tue May 10, 2016 7:52 pm
If you move the model forward (the farthest out I can go is 05-14) on AT's NOAA link, and you use the station at Tenaya Lake as your starting point, the hills above it have a lot of cover (that's where you're going-ish), and you can see the high country above Sunrise HSC (9300 ft) and the east aspect of CR (9900 ft) as a separate series of little blocks just below and to the SW of that area. So between today and 4 days from now, it gets a lot smaller. If that trend continues, you'll be in snow, but it's going fast, if you trust in the modeling. If you look at the model for a bit and correlate it with your trail map, it'll make sense if it doesn't already.
Via Echo Creek and Sunrise Lakes, you almost certainly add to your winter travel, just because it's more, higher and longer. Unless somebody reports on it, who knows how deep though? Check it again right before you leave, throw the gear in the car, see what the rangers say, go. You should be able to get a very basic idea from below of what to expect before you commit to the Echo Creek trail, and can always backtrack and go lower if you have to and don't like how it looks. There is a short pass over to Sunrise at the top that's about 9200 ft, so keep that in mind and use it to sort of pre-gauge what the conditions are there and beyond as soon as you have a visual. If you do commit and get up higher but have to call it, and need/want to stop for whatever reason, Echo Creek's overall topography almost all along the Cathedral Fork is forgiving enough for some camping if it comes to that , but there are also some good existing sites by the 2nd footbridge that I know of. That's actually a really pretty little valley anyhow, so it's not a bad place to bivouac if you have to.